The Electricity System Operator is expecting the UK to have sufficient margins throughout the winter period.
In its Early View of Winter Outlook report for 2024-25, National Grid ESO forecast the de-rated margin under a base case scenario to be 5.6GW, or 9.4%. This is notably higher than the 4.4GW, or 7.4%, forecast in the Winter Outlook for 2023-24. Increased interconnector capacity, new gas generation and growth in battery storage capacity, as well as the impact of increased generation to the distribution networks are the main reason for this.
It is also anticipating a reduced risk of fuel shortages for gas generation in Britain due to rebalancing in European energy markets. This has also had the effect of increasing the resilience of interconnector imports to any potential supply-side shocks. This includes French nuclear plant availability, which looks set to be healthier compared to previous years.
ESO Chief Operating Officer, Kayte O’Neill commented: “Global energy markets are showing signs of stability, but uncertainties remain and therefore as a prudent system operator we remain vigilant, continuing to monitor potential risks and working closely with our partners to establish any actions necessary to build resilience.”
